Yields Up 35 Basis Points, the Dollar Up 3.8%. Bitcoin Was Up 4.2% Too — With a Detour

The short version: This was inflation-data week in the United States, and interest rates and the dollar were everywhere in the news. We did not take anyone's word for how far they had moved. We lined up our own daily closes for the US 10-year yield, the Dollar Index and Bitcoin. Since 9 September, all three ended higher — but they did not get there together.

What the headline says

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule, the September consumer price report was due on 14 October and the producer price report on 15 October. The Federal Reserve calendar shows its next policy meeting on 27–28 October. Market coverage around these dates has focused on rates and the dollar.

We did not verify any commentary about what those releases mean for markets, and we do not repeat it here. The dates are the only outside facts we rely on.

What our data shows

Daily closes from our market records, 9 September to 14 October:

• US 10-year yield: 4.837% → 5.190%, a rise of 35.3 basis points. Its highest close in our file was 5.311% on 5 October.
• Dollar Index: 98.77 → 102.55, up 3.8%.
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD): $78,260 → $81,562, up 4.2%.

The detour is in Bitcoin's path. From 9 September to its highest close of $86,603 on 21 September, Bitcoin gained 10.7% (with a low close of $75,613 on 15 September along the way). Over the same days the yield rose 12.6 basis points and the dollar 1.7%.

After 21 September the picture split. By 14 October Bitcoin was 5.8% below that close, while the yield was 22.7 basis points higher and the dollar 2.1% higher.

One more data point: our file's latest 10-year yield close, for 15 October, is 5.089%, which is 10.1 basis points below the day before and 22.2 below the 5 October high. Our Bitcoin and Dollar Index series end on 14 October, so we cannot place them next to that day.

Three lines rose over five weeks. That does not mean one pulled the others — we did not test that, and the 21 September split shows why a single comparison proves very little.

Why this matters

Rates, the dollar and Bitcoin are often discussed as one story. Over the full window they all rose; over the second half, Bitcoin and the other two moved in opposite directions. Which window you pick changes what the chart appears to say.

At TrendEu we put headline claims next to our own records and say plainly what we did and did not measure. Here we measured levels and changes. We did not measure whether rates or the dollar lead Bitcoin, so we make no claim about it.