Method: how we measure ideas
TRENDEU is an analysis laboratory. Before we say whether an indicator or an idea works, we measure it — and we publish the result plainly, even when it does not work.
1 · A written rule first
Before each measurement, we write down and lock what will be measured, with which data, and what counts as a pass. The rule is not changed after looking at the result.
2 · Compared with random entries
An idea competes against randomly chosen entries under the same conditions. Costs such as fees and slippage are deducted. If it is not better than random, it does not work.
3 · A held-back period
Part of the data is kept aside until the end and opened only once. This separates a result fitted to the past from one that actually repeats.
4 · Evidence Graveyard
An idea that fails is not deleted. What was rejected, under which conditions and why stays on record and is open to our members.
What we do not do
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